Thursday, November 20, 2014

Core Area Liquid Waste Management Committee changes

The committee is made of the 15 CRD directors that come from the seven municipalities that are part of the Core Area Liquid Waste Management Plan.    With the recent election there are four changes to the committee, possibly five if the new CRD chair is not already on the committee.

Members of the Core Area Liquid Waste Management Committee before and after the recent election
Those in red were most firmly opposed to the old plan

  • Alto, Marianne
  • Blackwell, Denise
  • Brice, Susan
  • Brownoff, Judy
  • Bryson, Alastair he was on the committee as Chair of the CRD
  • Derman, Vic
  • Desjardins, Barbara
  • Fortin, Dean now Lisa Helps
  • Hamilton, Carol
  • Hill, Graham now David Screech
  • Isitt, Ben
  • Jensen, Nils dejure, John Herbert defacto
  • Leonard, Frank (defacto Vicki Sanders) now Richard Atwell
  • Seaton, Lanny
  • Wergeland, Leif now Colin Plant
  • Young, Geoff

Assuming all the new members of the CALWMC are opposed to the concept of the old plan, you still have a majority on the committee that supported the old plan.  The old plan is dead it seems, but the people that supported it are still in power.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Incumbents in the CRD are re-elected 87.8% of the time

The first number is the incumbents defeated, the second is incumbent councilors that ran.  Empty slots indicate a lack of information, na means the municipality did not exist
Municipality    2014 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 TOTAL  pct
Central Saanich  0/4  1/4  1/4  0/4  0/2  0/5            2/23   8.7%
Colwood          0/3  1/4  0/3  2/6  2/5  0/1  1/3       6/25  24.0%
Esquimalt        2/5  0/2  0/3  2/4  1/3  0/3  1/4       6/24  25.0%
Highlands        0/2  0/6  0/1  0/3  1/4  0/2  0/2  na   1/20   5.0%
Langford         0/6  0/6  0/5  0/6  0/4  0/5  1/3  na   1/35   2.9%
Metchosin        0/2  0/4  0/2  2/4  0/1                 2/13  15.4%
North Saanich    3/4  0/2  1/5  1/2  0/4  1/2  1/4       7/23  30.4%
Oak Bay          0/3  0/3  0/5  0/4  1/6  0/3            1/24   4.2%
Saanich          2/8  0/7  0/6  0/5  1/8  1/8  1/5  1/7  6/54  11.1%
Sidney           0/2  0/4  2/4  0/4  0/6                 2/20  10.0%
Sooke            0/4  0/3  1/3  0/2  1/5  na   na   na   2/17  11.8%
Victoria         0/6  3/8  0/5  0/6  1/6  1/6  0/6  0/4  5/47  10.6%
View Royal       0/3  0/3  0/3  0/3  0/3  1/2  1/3  1/4  3/24  12.5%
TOTALS           7/52 5/56 5/49 7/53 8/57               45/369 12.2%
PCT             13.5  8.9  10.2 13.2 14.0

Last time an incumbent was defeated
2014 - Saanich, Esquiamlt, North Saanich
2011 - Victoria, Colwood, Central Saanich
2008 - Sidney, Sooke
2005 - Metchosin
2002 - Highlands, Oak Bay
1999 - View Royal
1996 - Langford

In the history of Langford and Highlands only one incumbent in each has ever been defeated.   In Sooke it is 2 over the history of the municipality

2014 Sooke School District SD#62 Election Results

Belmont Zone - 4 trustees to be elected

  1. Wendy Hobbs         3,835 incumbent
  2. Ravi Parmar         3,668
  3. Dianna Seaton       3,068 incumbent
  4. Denise Riley        2,641 incumbent 
  5. Jan Peever          2,334
  6. Stephanie Longstaff 2,308
  7. Trudy Spiller       2,201
  8. Donald Brown        2,197
  9. Dean Sutton         1,524
  10. Sarah Wilson        1,217
  11. Melissa McConnell     895
  12. Timothy Rud           461

I do not have the vote results for 2011 so I can not show the change in vote

Milnes Landing Zone - 3 trustees to be elected

  1. Margot Swinburnson 2,271 (+447) incumbent
  2. Robert Phillips    1,813 (+546) incumbent
  3. Neil Poirier       1,748 (+181) incumbent
  4. Benula Larsen      1,058
  5. Doris Gulmans        976
  6. Arthur Chipps        766
Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990
If you know old results that I do not have, please let me know

Monday, November 17, 2014

Electoral Math - or why our municipal electoral system sucks

A friend asked to explain what I mean when I talk about the bad electoral math of our electoral system.  So this is for Jack.

The top 4, 6 or 8 candidates in the election are elected depending on the size of the council.  This sounds simple enough and it would be if we only had a single vote but we do not, we get multiple votes.    You are allowed to vote up to the number of councilors there are to be elected.  You do not need to vote all your votes but most people do.  This is where the problem comes.

This is a quick simplistic break down of a fictional election

Let us assume we are elected 8 councilors to the council of Fort Camosun BC and there are 16 candidates of which 6 are currently on council.   There are 10,000 voters casting an average of 6 votes each for a total of 60,000 votes cast.  There are informal right wing and left wing slates.

Aaron - current councilor - right wing
Beth - current councilor - left wing
Carl - current councilor
Diane - current councilor - right wing
Earl - current councilor - left wing
Flora - current councilor - left wing
Gerald - right wing
Hilda - right wing
Imogen - left wing

The right wing and left wing slates each get 2000 of their supporters to vote for their slate, they both have four candidates on their slates so each of their candidates get 2000 votes and those 4000 people (2000 for each slate) cast a further 8000 votes which is an average of 800 votes for each other candidate.

2500 people like five of the current council (randomly five, not the same five) this is worth 2,000 votes for each incumbent.   2500 votes are remaining or 250 votes for each of the other 10 candidates.

Jack through Olivia all equally bring 500 voters to the election.   That is 3500 people accounting for 21,000 votes but only 3500 votes have a home.   There are 17,500 votes from these supporters looking for a new home.  Most of these votes will go to people they recognize the most, the incumbents.   Let us assign roughly 2/3s to the incumbents because they are the best known names, that is 2000 to each one of them.   The remaining 5500 are split equally among the other ten candidates

So where are at
Aaron 6,000
Beth 6,000
Diane 6,000
Earl  6,000
Flora 6,000
Carl  4,800
Gerald 2800
Hilda 2800
Imogen 2800
Jack 2100
Kurt 2100
Lizzy 2100
Mike 2100
Nellie 2100
Peter 2100
Olivia 2100

All the incumbents are elected and the two new councilors come from the slates with one slate candidate just losing.

The new candidates bring in the largest group of "extra" votes looking for a home and this benefits the best known names the most.   A typical new candidate's supporters will give 1/2 vote to an incumbent for each vote the new candidate gets.  The perverse reality is that often in our elections the harder work of new candidates benefits those they are trying to unseat.    

Each slate only has 2000 supporters each but they keep much of their vote internal and that helps them stay near the top.

A lot of people that come to vote and are not tied to anyone's campaign will tend to vote for the names they know, the incumbents.

In real life the numbers are not this neat but you can make some realistic assumptions about how people will behave in an election when they are trying to fill their ballot with enough names.

So how can Jack win?   Ideally appeal to both the left and right slates.  If 2/3s of each slate's supporters like him he gains an extra 2,667 votes and at the same time takes away 500 votes from each candidate not on a slate.   Jack goes from 2100 to 4,767 while the other new candidates all drop to 1600.   He even passes current non-partisan incumbent Carl who is now at 4300 votes.

Jack could create a new non partisan slate with five other new candidates and hope this will keep enough votes among the newbies to deny the incumbents their normal benefit.

Jack could also become the best known name out there, ideally be a former MP, win an Oscar, spend enough money to make his name a household name, or anything else that makes his name stand out over all the others.   This is really only possible if you are already rich or famous which Jack is not.

Keep in mind this is all very much simplified.

Does this help?

Gender break down of the new councils

Municipalities with a majority of women on council are in red

Muncipality    Mayor     Council 
Central Saan   New Man  5 men 1 woman 3 inc 3 new
Colwood      Inc Woman  3 men 3 women 3 inc 3 new
Esquimalt    Inc Woman  1 man 5 women 3 inc 3 new
Highlands      New Man  2 men 4 women 2 inc 4 new
Langford       Inc Man  3 men 3 women 6 inc 
Metchosin      Inc Man  2 men 2 women 2 inc 2 new
North Saan   Inc Woman  4 men 2 women 1 inc 5 new
Oak Bay        Inc Man  3 men 3 women 3 inc 3 new
Saanich        New Man  5 men 3 women 6 inc 2 new
Sidney         New Man  4 men 2 women 2 inc 4 new
Sooke        New Woman  2 men 4 women 4 inc 2 new
Victoria     New Woman  4 men 4 women 6 inc 2 new
View Royal     New Man  3 men 1 woman 3 inc 1 new
TOTALS    5 women 8 men  41      37     45   33

What now for amalgamation?

To be clear to everyone, the provincial government is not going to do anything unless it is asked to do so by the local governments.  

I think we are most likely to see the most action on amalgamation on the Peninsula and I suspect that Central Saanich Mayor Ryan Windsor will become the leader on the issue.   The three peninsula communities have worked together closer than any others in this region.   They actually meet together as councils several times a year.   Politically the process is likely to move forward not only because of the leadership from Central Saanich but also because the civil war in North Saanich is over, for the moment, and the new mayor in Sidney is pragmatic.

I would be surprised if they did not start their process within the next few months.

In the core things are much more mixed.  Oak Bay has shot the idea down and has a mayor who is dead set against looking into the issue at all.  They are clearly not going to be anyone's partner.

Saanich voted for a process that will take a number of years to get the point where they can talk with neighbours about amalgamation.  The new mayor, Richard Atwell, is supportive of amalgamation but he has to work within the context of his council.   I do not see how he can end-run the process envisaged by the out going mayor to engage the community on the way forward without breaking his promise of being more open to the public

One of the most obvious "marriages" in this region is Saanich and Victoria, but given the track record of the city of Victoria over the last decade or more it is hard to see how this "marriage" could easily be made palatable to the people of Saanich.  There are ways to deal with all the issues, but it is complex

Both Esquimalt and Victoria voted in favour but I suspect that Esquimalt is not likely to be keen on going down the amalgamation path with Victoria;   Victoria has 82,595 residents versus Esquimalt's 16,389, Victoria has five times the number of people.  Also, the Esquimalt experience with the police is hardly one that inspires confidence.   If anything is going to happen here it will only come if the new council in Victoria shows themselves to be trustworthy partners for Esquimalt.

Esquimalt can consider two directions other than hooking up with Victoria - either with Saanich or with View Royal.  

View Royal did not have a vote on studying amalgamation but I do not think the council would be opposed to sitting down with Esquimalt and talking.   There are reasons why this match might make sense, though serious studying is needed.

  • Large parts of View Royal are very closely connected to western parts of Esquimalt.   
  • The two municipalities are small but a combined one could allow for some efficiency in operations and also allow for a deeper pool of knowledge and skills at City Hall.  
  • It would improve local government planning for the Gorge and Esquimalt Habour.  
  • Esquimalt already has a professional fire department and realistically View Royal should probably have one.  Amalgamating could be beneficial for that 
  • Esquimalt would be able to get out of the Victoria Police contract
The other direction for Esquimalt is partnership with Saanich.   Saanich has been seen as financially well managed but once again it is not a partnership of equals.  Also, Saanich is committed to a process that will delay any discussion of amalgamation.

Meanwhile on the Westshore only Langford voted on the issue and it was a very narrow win for actually amalgamating Langford into a larger municipality but there are no neighbouring partners that had a vote as well.   They are partner-less so I think it will die there on the Westshore for now.

The Probable New CRD Board

Saanich gets five seats, Victoria four and Langford two, all the other municipalities get one.   Saanich and Victoria ask the electorate how to fill four and three of the CRD director positions, Langford does not.

I am assuming that the new mayor's will be the representative for their municipality and that Langford will not change their's.

This the probable new CRD board - the names in red are new to the CRD

  • Marianne Alto - Councilor Victoria
  • Richard Atwell - Mayor Saanich
  • Denise Blackwell - Councilor Langford
  • Susan Brice - Councilor Saanich
  • Judy Brownoff - Councilor Saanich
  • Vic Derman - Councilor Saanich
  • Barb Desjardins - Mayor Esquimalt
  • Alice Finall - Mayor North Saanich she was on the CRD from 2008 to 2011
  • Carol Hamilton - Mayor Colwood
  • Lisa Helps - Mayor Victoria
  • Mike Hicks - JdF electoral area
  • David Howe - Southern Gulf Islands electoral area
  • Ben Isitt - Councilor Victoria
  • Nils Jensen - Mayor Oak Bay
  • Wayne McIntyre - Saltspring Island electoral area
  • Colin Plant - Councilor Saanich
  • Steve Price - Mayor Sidney
  • John Ranns - Mayor Metchosin
  • David Screech - Mayor View Royal he has been the alternate for View Royal
  • Lanny Seaton - Councilor Langford
  • Maja Tait - Mayor Sooke
  • Ken Williams - Mayor Highlands
  • Ryan Windsor - Mayor Central Saanich
  • Geoff Young - Councilor Victoria

8 of the 9 new members are there because they are new mayors.

The New Dynamics of Saanich Council

On the old council Frank Leonard had a core group that generally supported his direction on council but his defeat along with Nichola Wade and Paul Gerrard it becomes very interesting to see what the new dynamic will look like.

In BC the mayor of a community is not a very strong position, there are only very limited things a mayor can do without the direct consent of the majority of the council.   For the last three years we have seen in North Saanich what happens when the mayor is in the minority on the council.   It makes for a bad governance situation.

Richard Atwell comes in as mayor as very much an outsider.  For Richard Atwell to be an effective mayor he will have to be skilled diplomat in building support from among the new council otherwise there is a danger of having a divided council with the mayor in the minority.

On the new council the centre left has a clear majority.   Dean Murcock, Judy Brownoff and Colin Plant have personal ties to the NDP.  Vicki Sanders and Vic Derman are left of centre but not New Democrats.    That is five members of council and enough to control what is done in Saanich.   I can not think of a time in the last generation where the left has held the majority of the seats on Saanich council.   For this group to work cohesively much well depend on how Vic Derman interacts with the other four.

It is not clear to me what is the group of councilors will be the most supportive of Richard Atwell as mayor.   Of the eight elected only Fred Haynes was moderately close to Richard Atwell.   At least five of the six incumbents that were re-elected felt targeted by the Atwell campaign which is unlikely to make them ready to rush in and support his program.   I have trouble seeing Susan Brice or Leif Wergeland being there for the new mayor.  

There are clearly issues or changes in policy where all of the new council will agree but most of those are basic motherhood issues.   But will happen beyond that?  What happens if the mayor and council do not agree?

Here are some things to consider

  • Richard Atwell raised a number of issues of actions that were taken by Saanich that the communities involved with were not happy with.   I am not sure if this means that the mayor will seek to defer to local interests at all times.   It could mean that Saanich may be seen as anti-development and lose new projects.
  • Taxation levels were an issue for Richard Atwell.   It will be interesting to see what he proposes for the budget and how he will get the public interested in the process and how he will get a majority on council in favour of his budget priorities.
  • Richard Atwell has left me with the impression that he wants to make some heads roll at City Hall - he will need the support of council to do that.  It could also make it hard for him to build a sense of trust between staff and himself.
  • How will Richard Atwell move forward on the amalgamation issue for Saanich?   

We now come to the CRD.   Of the five CRD directors from Saanich, three of them will be the same ones as before, only Colin Plant and Richard Atwell will be new.   Will this be enough to change the dynamic of the CRD?   Richard Atwell will be one voice at the CRD and may have to live with the CRD sewage treatment direction even if it is not what he wants.

It becomes very important for the new mayor to build good relationships with the council and we will quickly see if Richard Atwell can do this or not.

How did the incumbents do? An 86.5% re-election rate

We had 52 incumbent councilors run in 2014, 45 of them were re-elected.  That is 86.5% re-election rate which is actually worse than has been the case in this region.

In 10 of the 13 municipalities all the incumbent councilors running were re-elected.

  • Three of four incumbents were defeated in North Saanich - in the previous 6 elections only four were defeated
  • Two of eight incumbents were defeated in Saanich this time, the first ones defeated since 2002 In the last seven elections only six have been defeated
  • Two of six incumbents were  defeated in Esquimalt, the first since 2005.   A total of six have been defeated in the last seven elections

1,557 people voted for David Shebib

Here is a table of how well he did in all 13 municipalities

Municipality  Pct  Vote  Rank
Langford    12.98%  556   2/2
Highlands    8.05%   42   2/2
Colwood      3.33%   94   3/3
Metchosin    2.51%   39   3/3
Cent Saanich 1.80%   91   3/3
Saanich      1.63%  482   3/3
Oak Bay      1.47%  102   3/3
Sooke        0.65%   26   3/3
Esquimalt    0.57%   25   3/3
Nth Saanich  0.48%   23   4/4
Sidney       0.39%   15   5/5
Victoria     0.25%   62   7/8
TOTAL             1,557

The fact the David Shebib managed to get almost 13% of the vote and over 500 votes in Langford says to me there is a discontent with the current mayor.  The very fact that close to 13% would be willing to vote for a clearly off the wall and not serious candidate says something about what people thing of Stew Young

The two municipalities where David Shebib did the worst were the ones where there were four serious candidates.

With 1,557 votes overall in the CRD David Shebib got more votes than  a number of the people elected as mayor

Ken Williams    Highlands      480
Steve Price     Sidney       1,312
Joihn Ranns     Metchosin    1,334
David Screech   View Royal   1,336
Carol Hamilton  Colwood      2,368
Alice Finall    Nth Saanich  2,416
Maja Tait       Sooke        2,527
Ryan Windsor    Cent Saanich 2,998
Barb Desjardins Esquimalt    3,180
Nils Jensen     Oak Bay      3,640
Stew Young      Langford     3,727
Lisa Helps      Victoria     9,200
Richard Atwell  Saanich     14,178

Results of the Amalgamation Referendums

Municipality    Yes %  No %   Yes    No 
Saanich         88.5%  11.5% 21,437 2,780
Victoria        80.0%  20.0% 18,351 4.601
Central Saanich 70.7%  29.3%  3,588 1,489
Sidney          67.6%  32.4%  2,566 1,232
Esquimalt       67.5%  32.5%  2,905 1,404
North Saanich   62.5%  37.5%  2,881 1,727
Langford        51.6%  48.3%  2,222 2,209
Oak Bay         37.7%  61,2%  2,184 3,594
                             56,134 19,025

The Questions - they were rather varied across the region
Central Saanich
Should the District of Central Saanich petition the Province to fund a cost/benefit analysis of an amalgamation of Central Saanich, North Saanich and Sidney?
Are you in favour of exploring the reduction of the number of municipalities within Greater Victoria through amalgamation with?
Are you in favour if the City of Langford being amalgamated into a larger regional muncipality?
North Saanich
Non-Binding Question: Are you in favour of a study, provincially funded, to investigate the feasibility, costs and implications of amalgamating the three municipalities on the Saanich Peninsula of Sidney, Central Saanich and North Saanich?
Oak Bay
Are you in favour of the District of Oak Bay being amalgamated into a larger regional municipality?
Do you support Council initiating a community-based review of the governance structure and policies within Saanich and our partnerships within the Region?
Non-Binding Question: Are you in favour of a provincially funded study to investigate the feasibility, costs and implications of amalgamating the three municipalities of the Saanich Peninsula?
Are you in favour of reducing the number of municipalities in Greater Victoria through amalgamation?

Sunday, November 16, 2014

2014 Saanich School District SD#63 Elections Results

Sidney - 1 Trustee

  1. Jason Price      1,310
  2. Allan Collier    1,220
  3. Jim Standen        557

North Saanich - 2 Trustees

  1. Barb Menzies     2,727 (+497) incumbent
  2. Elsie McMurphy   2,390
  3. Robert Marty       984

Central Saanich - 2 Trustees

  1. Tim Dunford      2,192 incumbent
  2. Nancy Borden     1,741
  3. Pat Bryant       1,553
  4. Nicholas Claxton 1,331 incumbent

Saanich - 2 Trustees

  1. Wayne Hunter     3,851 (+900) incumbent
  2. Victoria Martin  3,345
  3. Kerry Steinemann 1,393 (+593)

2014 Greater Victoria School District SD#61 Election Results

9 Trustees to be elected

  1. Ann Whiteaker        20252
  2. Deborah Nohr         20177  (+6,732) incumbent
  3. Peg Orcherton        20083  (+4,470) Incumbent 
  4. Diane McNally        20057  (+7,080) incumbent
  5. Rob Paynter          18926 (+10,789)  
  6. Elaine Leonard       17855  (+3,113) incumbent  
  7. Edith Loring-Kuhanga 17389  (+6,125) incumbent  
  8. Tom Ferris           16940  (+4,340) incumbent
  9. Jordan Watters       16658 
  10. Bev Horsman       16351  (+2,556) incumbent
  11. Nicole Duncan        14247
  12. John Rizzuti         12458
  13. Ruth MacIntosh       12222
Past Election Results

Voter Turnout in 2014 - still abysmal

Here is a table of the turnout ranked by best to worst in 2014

Municipality    2014 2011 2008
North Saanich   53.1 41.5 52.5
Sidney          43.0 31.0 36.5
Oak Bay         42.9 42.0 36.0
Sooke           41.5 41.9 40.1
Victoria        39.1 26.4 26.9
Metchosin       36.9 48.8 58.8
Saanich         36.2 25.4 21.0 
Central Saanich 36.1 32.4 33.4
Esquimalt       30.3 18.0 26.9
Highlands       30.1 ---  ???? - 2011 was an acclamation
View Royal      28.1 27.9 23.3
Colwood         25.5 26.8 27.0
Langford        19.0 14.0 22.9

Even with talk of a higher voter turnout, the numbers are not much better than in the past several elections.    In eight of 12 municipalities this year was the best turnout of the last three elections

The biggest absolute increases were in Saanich and Victoria but still they were barely more than one third.  Most people really were not engaged by the election.

We did see one municipality where voter turnout was over 50%, North Saanich.

In Esquimalt and North Saanich the large rise in turnout were caused because the mayors were no acclaimed.   

2014 View Royal Election Results

2,136 out of 7,605 voted for a turnout of 28.1%

  1. David Screech 1,336 - sitting councilor
  2. Brian Burchill  725
  3. David Shebib     45
Council - 4 to be elected
  1. Heidi Rast     1,536 (+181) incumbent
  2. John Rogers    1,499 (+217) incumbent
  3. Ron Mattson    1,417 (+404) incumbent
  4. Aaron Weisgerber 966
  5. Mark Brennan     885
  6. Wes Kennedy      780

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990

2014 Sooke Election Results

3,881 out of 9,354 voted for a turnout 41.5%

  1. Maja Tait    2,527 sitting councilor
  2. Herb Haldane 1,263 sitting councilor
  3. David Shebib    26
Council - 6 to be elected
  1. Kerrie Reay      2,171 (+592) incumbent
  2. Ebony Logins     2,116
  3. Brenda Parkinson 2,034
  4. Kevin Pearson    1,870   (+2) incumbent
  5. Rick Kasper      1,847 (+112) incumbent
  6. Bev Berger       1,807  (-17) incumbent
  7. Jeff Bateman     1,783
  8. Kel Phair        1,430
  9. Mark Whiteson    1,031
  10. Justin Hanson     1,029

Would you support the District of Sooke working with the community to develop multi-use community centre facilities?
Yes 3,072
No 631

Should the District of Sooke join other municipalities in renewing and restating its opposition to the expansion of oil tanker traffic through Coastal BC waters?
Yes 2,618
No 1,138

Past Elections Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999

2014 Town of Sidney Election Results

3,911 out 9,100 voted for a turnout of 43.0%


  1. Steve Price        1,312 sitting councilor
  2. Cliff McNeil-Smith 1,180 
  3. Don Amos             706 former mayor
  4. Steve Duck           674
  5. David Shebib          15

Council - 6 to be elected

  1. Erin Bremner          2,269
  2. Barbara Fallot        2,085
  3. Peter Wainwright      2,046
  4. Mervyn Lougher-Goodey 1,926 (+179) incumbent
  5. Tim Chad              1,741 (+125) incumbent
  6. Cam McLennan          1,543
  7. Sheilah Fea           1,475
  8. Melissa Hailey        1.378
  9. Bob Jones             1,378
  10. Colin Plint           1,169
  11. Mike Barwick          1,063
  12. Romi Bongers            817

Non-Binding Question: Are you in favour of a provincially funded study to investigate the feasibility, costs and implications of amalgamating the three municipalities of the Saanich Peninsula?
Yes 2,566
No 1,232

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999

2014 Oak Bay Election Results

6,058 out of 14,107 voted for a turnout of 42.9%


  1. Nils Jensen       3.640 (+443) incumbent
  2. Cairine Green     2,197 sitting councilor
  3. David Shebib        102

Council - 6 to be elected

  1. Kevin Murdoch     3,875 (+528) incumbent 
  2. Hazel Braithwaite 3,546
  3. Tara Ney          3,411 (-488) incumbent 
  4. Michelle Kirby    2,587  (-29) incumbent
  5. Eric Zhelka       2,584
  6. Tom Croft         2,549
  7. Max Johannesen    2,165
  8. Andrew Stinson    2,053
  9. Heather Holmes    2,040
  10. Jan Mears         1,265
  11. Joan Russow         995

Are you in favour of the District of Oak Bay being amalgamated into a larger regional municipality?
No  3,594
Yes 2,184

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 North Saanich Election Results

4,812 out of 9,055 voted for a turnout of 53.1%


  1. Alice Finall       2,416 incumbent
  2. Dorothy Hartshorne 2,258
  3. Peter Miller          62
  4. David Shebib          23

Council - 6 to be elected

  1. Geoff Orr           3,367
  2. Heather Gartshore   3,248
  3. Jack Thornburgh     3,000 (+1,086)   
  4. Celia Stock         2,938   (+981) incumbent
  5. Jack McClintock     1,904
  6. Murray Weisenberger 1,904
  7. Steve Pearce        1,899
  8. Craig Mearns        1,673   (-369) incumbent
  9. Conny McBride       1,601   (-382) incumbent
  10. Dunstan Browne      1,528   (-447) incumbent

Non-Binding Question: Are you in favour of a study, provincially funded, to investigate the feasibility, costs and implications of amalgamating the three municipalities on the Saanich Peninsula of Sidney, Central Saanich and North Saanich?
Yes 2,881
No  1,727

Past Election Results
2011 2010 by 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 Metchosin Election Results

1,584 out of 4,287 voted for a turnout of 36.9%

  1. John Ranns   1,334 (-120) incumbent
  2. Ed Cooper      183 (-208) incumbent
  3. David Shebib    39
Council - 4 to be elected
  1. Bob Gramigna    1.082 (-150) incumbent
  2. Andy MacKinnon  1,068
  3. Moralea Milne   1,010  (-40) incumbent
  4. Kyara Kahakauwila 828  (-93) 
  5. Chris Moehr       568
  6. Anne Richmond     565
  7. Karen Watson      414 (-145)
Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999

2014 Langford Election Results

4,532 people out of 23,864 voted for a turnout of 19.0%

  1. Stew Young       3,727 (+1,408) - incumbent
  2. David Shebib       556
Council - 6 to be elected

  1. Lillian Szpak    2,760 (+824) incumbent
  2. Denise Blackwell 2,540 (+580) incumbent
  3. Lanny Seaton     2,373 (+542) incumbent
  4. Winnie Sifert    2,326 (+493) incumbent
  5. Roger Wade       2,236 (+596) incumbent
  6. Matt Sahlstrom   2,174 (+494) incumbent
  7. Jim Munro        1,328
  8. Pauline Adams    1,293
  9. Dustin Finerty   1,241
  10. Grant McLachlan  1,065 (-154)
  11. Mark McInnes     1,003
  12. Paul Barber        889
  13. Timothy Power      854
  14. Andre Mollon       368

Are you in favour of the City of Langford being amalgamated into a larger regional municipality?
Yes 2,222
No  2,209

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 Highlands Election Results

518 out of 1,723 voted for a turnout of 30.1%

  1. Ken Williams 480 - sitting councilor
  2. David Shebib  42
Council - 6 to be elected

  1. Leslie Anderson 458
  2. Karel Roessingh 453 incumbent
  3. Marcie McLean   411 incumbent
  4. Karen Burns     408
  5. Gord Barid      398
  6. Ann Baird       395
  7. Sherry Clayton  214
2011 the council was acclaimed 

Past Election Results

2014 Township of Esquimalt Election Results

4,407 people out of 14,545 voted for a turnout of 30.3%


  1. Barb Desjardins 3,180 incumbent
  2. John Ducker       962
  3. Scott Attrill     196
  4. David Shebib       25

Council - 6 to be elected

  1. Susan Low         2,749
  2. Tim Morrison      2,550 (+895) incumbent
  3. Meagan Brame      2,535 (+904) incumbent
  4. Beth Burton-Krahn 2,347
  5. Lynda Hundleby    2,345 (+775) incumbent
  6. Olga Liberchuck   1,809
  7. Mark Salter       1,748
  8. Bob McKie         1,606  (+12) incumbent
  9. Brenda O'Connor   1,123
  10. Rod Lavergne        775
  11. David Schinbein     761 (-179) incumbent
  12. Josh Steffler       726  (-74) 

Are you in favour of the Township of Esquimalt exploring options to achieve efficiencies by further sharing some services with other municipalities?
Yes 3,731
No    578
Are you in favour of exploring the reduction of the number of municipalities within Greater Victoria through amalgamation?
Yes 2,905
No  1,404

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 Colwood Election Results

2940 people out of 11,536 voted for a turnout of 25.5%


  1. Carol Hamilton     2,368 (+956) incumbent
  2. Robin Stanbridge     359
  3. David Shebib          94

Council - 6 to be elected

  1. Rob Martin         1,896 (+251) incumbent
  2. Cynthia Day        1,881 (+230) incumbent
  3. Gordie Logan       1,846 (+145) incumbent
  4. Jason Nault        1,708
  5. Lilja Chong        1,564
  6. Terry Trace        1,430
  7. Natalia Lebedynsky 1,226
  8. Duane MacNeill       935 (+124)
  9. Paul DeVito          676
  10. Steve Huneck         480
  11. Robb Marty           327

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 Central Saanich Election Results

5.137 people out of 14,242 voted, a turnout out of 36.1% turnout


  1. Ryan Windsor 2,998 sitting councilor
  2. Jack Mar     1,955 former mayor
  3. David Shebib    91

Council - 6 to be elected

  1. Niall Paltiel  3,168
  2. Zeb King       3,018 (+903) incumbent
  3. Alicia Cormier 2,968 incumbent - elected in 2013 by-election
  4. Carl Jensen    2,897 (+647) incumbent
  5. Chris Graham   2,820
  6. Bob Thompson   2,648
  7. John Hannam    2,276
  8. Susan Mason    1,966 (+30)
  9. Shawn Munro    1,147
  10. Baldev Lalli     612
  11. Tex Moodrey      203
(Chris Graham, Bob Thompson, John Hannam and Susan Mason all ran in the 2013 by-election but were defeated)

Should the District of Central Saanich petition the Province to fund a cost/benefit analysis of an amalgamation of Central Saanich, North Saanich and Sidney?
Yes 3,588
No  1,489

Past Election Results
2013 by 2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996

2014 Saanich Election Results

28,517 out of 80.986 voted for turnout of 35.2%

  1. Richard Atwell 14,178
  2. Frank Leonard  13,152 (+2,001) incumbent
  3. David Shebib      482
Council - 8 to be elected
  1. Dean Murdock      14,781 (+2882) incumbent
  2. Colin Plant       14,778
  3. Susan Brice       14,182   (+635) incumbent
  4. Vic Derman        14,046 (+1,619) incumbent
  5. Fred Haynes       13,492
  6. Judy Brownoff     13,162    (-46) incumbent
  7. Vicki Sanders     13,002   (+644) incumbent
  8. Lief Wergeland    12,107   (+367) incumbent
  9. Rebecca Mersereau 12,077
  10. Paul Gerrard      11,488   (+807) incumbent
  11. Shawn Newby       11,167
  12. Nichola Wade      11,066 (+1,629) incumbent
  13. Marsha Henderson  10,416

Do you support Council initiating a community-based review of the governance structure and policies within Saanich and our partnerships within the Region?
Yes 21,437
No   2,780

CRD Director

  1. Susan Brice 10,796 (-211)
  2. Colin Plant 9,419
  3. Vic Derman 9,234 (+830)
  4. Judy Brownoff 8,493 (-1,159)
  5. Dean Murdock 8,339 (+1,601)
  6. Fred Haynes 8,324
  7. Lief Wergeland 7.958 (+58)
  8. Vicki Sanders 6,608 (-345)
  9. Paul Gerrard 6,254 (+573)
  10. Shawn Newby 6.099
  11. Marsha Henderson 5,239
  12. Nichola Wade 5,199 (+425)

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 

2014 City of Victoria Election Results

24,665 people voted out of 63,084 which is a  39.1% turnout

  1. Lisa Helps     9,200 sitting councilor
  2. Dean Fortin    9,111 (-969) incumbent
  3. Ida Chong      3,275
  4. Stephen Andrew 2,380
  5. Robert Duncan    253  
  6. Jason Ross       132
  7. David Shebib      62
  8. Riga Godron       33
Council - 8 to the elected
  1. Benjamin Isitt         14,729 (+6,310) incumbent
  2. Charlayne Thornton-Joe 12,046 (+3,243) incumbent
  3. Marianne Alto          12,016 (+4,523) incumbent
  4. Jeremy Loveday         10,852
  5. Pamela Madoff          10,354 (+3,022) incumbent
  6. Geoff Young             9,934   (+994) incumbent
  7. Margaret Lucas          8,145
  8. Christopher Coleman     8,017 (+1,224) incumbent
  9. Erik Kaye               7,295 (ran in 2005)
  10. John Luton              6,850   (+507)(elected in 2008, lost in 2011) 
  11. Hilary Groos            6,653
  12. Justin Stephenson       5,268
  13. Andrew Reeve            4,336
  14. Steve Filipovic         3,856 (ran for mayor in 2011)
  15. Ian Hoar                3,466
  16. Paul Servos             2,577
  17. Ryan Moen               2,108
  18. Sean Murray             1,897 (+1,170)
  19. Jonathan Carroll        1,739
  20. Jeffrey Olafson         1,693
  21. Gordon MacKinnon        1,334
  22. Saul Andersen           1,183 (+128)
  23. John Stewart            1,107
  24. James Harasymow           764
Are you in favour of reducing the number of municipalities in Greater Victoria through amalgamation?
Yes 18,351
No   4,601
1,713 people did not vote in the referendum

CRD Director  - 3 elected

  1. Ben Isitt        11,807 
  2. Marianne Alto     8,941  
  3. Geoff Young       7,063  
  4. Jeremy Loveday    6,496 
  5. Chris Coleman     5,163  
  6. John Luton        3,536  
  7. Erik Kaye         3,475 
  8. Justin Stephenson 2,517  
  9. Steve Filipovic   2,046 
  10. Andrew Reeve.     2,033 
  11. Sean Murray       1,017 
  12. Ryan Moen           865 
  13. Jonathan Carroll    740  
  14. Jeffrey Olafson     733  
  15. Gordon MacKinnon    662  
  16. Saul Andersen       617  
  17. James Harasymow     316  

Past Election Results
2011 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990

Friday, November 14, 2014

Why Geoff Orr is a good choice for North Saanich council

North Saanich has gone through a long period of back and forth battles.   The council needs someone on there who might be able to start to break this pattern.  I think that person is Geoff Orr.

I would write more, but it the last Friday afternoon of the election and at midnight I can no longer comment on the election at all.   You are still allowed to read what I wrote before midnight tonight.

Why I would vote for Carl Jensen in Central Saanich

I am running out of time to write up about all the people I think would be really good to see elected or re-elected in this region.

What can I say about Carl Jensen.  He is smart, he has a vision that is not just Central Saanich, he goes out of his way to engage with the public all of the time, and overall he is just a positive person.

I would say so much more, but I am not allowed to write anything after today and there are a few more I want to get out.  Please vote for Carl Jensen

Why Ryan Windsor for mayor of Central Saanich

Ryan is an astute and smart younger guy who has been on Central Saanich council for 18 months now.   I have known Ryan for four or five years now and here are some the qualities I like in him:

  • He is a strong leader but in a quiet and collaborative way.  I see him as mayor building the council into a strong team for Central Saanich
  • You know what his values are and they really matter to him, at the same time he is not an ideological partisan.   I know he can easily cooperate across the political spectrum
  • He is pragmatic
  • He basis his decisions on solid evidence and will change his view if new evidence comes forward
  • He is willing to consider new ways of doing things, which is actually relatively rare on local councils.

I would say a lot more, but I had meant to get this written a couple weeks back but life and work have intervened.    One final thought, if you were to ask who could be the first Green premier of BC, Ryan would be pick as the most likely.

If you are in Central Saanich, please vote for Ryan Windsor as mayor

Why the Rise in Advance Vote in Saanich and Esquimalt?

Esquimalt first, the advance vote went from 423 in 2011 to 1077 this time, so why is that?  This is for two reasons.    First, voter turnout in Esquimalt was dismal in 2011 and second there was no mayor's race that time.

Here is the total votes in Esquimalt by election

2011 2,300
2008 3,427
2005 3,521

What you can see is that 2011 had a much lower voter turnout than what normally happened in Esquimalt,

The second factor is a well contested mayor's race.    In 2011 Barb Desjardins was acclaimed so there was no race.    A mayor's race not only increases voter turn out, but the way a good campaign for mayor is run normally means the candidate works hard to get as many of their supporters to advance vote as possible.

In my opinion these two factors explain the rise in advance vote in Esquimalt.   The only factor at play is how strong the NDP machine behind John Ducker is.   The NDP has a lot of names of friendlies in Esquimalt, enough he could win the election on those names alone.  Did he get them out to vote?

Now we come to Saanich.  In 2011 they had 1264 people advance vote and this year 4089 people.  this looks like a HUGE increase, what happened?   Is there some massive demand for change?   Are the people in the streets with burning torches and pitchforks?   I do not see it in the numbers.

What changed between 2011 and 2014 is that Saanich went 2 advance voting opportunities, both of them at City Hall, to eight opportunities this time at seven different locations.  More chances to advance vote will mean more voters.   Offering more locations to advance vote also means more people will vote, City Hall is not close to most people in Saanich.

Given the change I would have expected to see the advance vote to rise though with diminishing improvement with each new opportunity.   So who are the people that normally advance vote?

There was time not so long ago when you could only advance vote if you had some reason you could not vote on election day.   This is no longer the case and there has been a trend at all levels for more of the general population to vote in advance polls.   The incremental increase seems to be about 15% between elections.   If there had been no new chances to advance vote I would have expected about 1450 people in Saanich to have done so.

Advance voting has become a very important tool of well organized campaigns.  The norm over the last 20 years has been that the bulk of people advance voting are hard core supporters of one of the campaigns.  In the last 10 years every well run campaign has pushed hard to get as much of their IDed vote to advance vote as they could.    The more of your supporters that advance vote, the more people you can reach and get out to vote on election day.  Advance voters are also locked in, nothing at the last minute in the election can change the votes of those that have voted.

With only one location and two dates most campaigns could only convince the really hardcore supporters to go out and vote, but with the expansion to seven locations over five days this is a God send for well organized campaigns.    The extra days and places makes it much easier to get a large portion of your supporters out to vote especially when you can geographically focus the campaign.  With two normal campaigns getting the vote out in Saanich I would have expected the advance vote in 2014 to have been around 5000 people.   If we had had two really strong campaigns with 400+ volunteers each I would have expected the advance vote number to 6000 to 7000.

We had 4089 people vote, not the 5000 as I would have expected.    Where are the other close to 1000 voters?   The only way I can reconcile this lower number with what should have happened is if one of the campaigns did not put much energy in getting their identified vote to go to the polls.   Which one was not doing their job?

 I know Frank Leonard's campaign is doing the old school thing of finding the voter and then getting them out to vote, much as he has always done.   They got their vote out.   It means I can only ascribe the missing voters to Richard Atwell's campaign not getting their people out to vote.  It means Richard Atwell has a much harder task on election day to reach all his supporters and Frank Leonard has an easier task than in 2011 because so many more of his voters are already in the "bank".