Wednesday, February 25, 2015

2014 Campaign spending in Central Saanich

losing candidates are in red.   Own money means the amount the candidate contributed to their campaign.  

Mayor
Candidate           Spent     Raised   Own Money
Ryan Windsor       $9,264.68 $8,289.01  $1023.02  (1)
Jack Mar             $475.04   $465.79   $455.79
Notes
1) Elizabeth May and Cathy Ounsted each donated $500 to Ryan Windsor.  Adam Olsen donated $130.00.  Catherine Windsor donated $1,000.00

Council
Candidate           Spent     Raised   Own Money
Naill Paltial      $9,686.96 $10,524.52 $5,099.52
Zeb King           $9,466.90  $9,874.01     $0.00 (1)
John Hannam        $6,007.78  $3,700.00 $2,700.00
Alicia Cormier     $5,141.67  $4,420.00 $2,550.00
Bob Thompson       $4,009.67  $3,204.41 $1,400.00
Christopher Graham $3,183.89    $534.00     $0.00
Carl Jensen        $3,125.11  $2,665.75     $0.00
Susan Mason        $1,607.91  $1,307.91     $0.00
Baldev Lalli         $286.50    $286.50   $286.50
Shawn Munro          $604.75  $1,304.75           (2)
Tex Moodrey           $93.00     $58.00    $53.00 

Notes
1) $1,100.00 in union donations.  
2) $700 in donations from unions - though in general his form does not seem to filled out correctly

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Campaign spending in Colwood - Lilja Chong massively outspent everyone else

The spending for the council race in Colwood is interesting.   Lilja Chong massively outspent the competition,  She spent $12,770.96 and the all the other candidates only spent about $1,750 more than that.   Almost $12,000 of her money came from one person, former Colwood councilor Ernie Robertson.

Candidate        Spent     Raised    Own money
Lilja Chong   $12,770.96 $12,770.96     $0.00  (1)
Duane MacNeill $3,895.00  $3,895.00 $3,895.00
Rob Martin     $3,659.66  $2,659.66 $1,809.66 
Terry Trace    $3,500.00  $2,500.00     $0.00  (2)
Jason Nault    $2,226.75  $3,264.95 $2,787.71  (3)
Gordie Logan   $1,340.51  $1,600.00     $0.00  (4) 
Cythnia Day      $671.15    $671.15   $671.15
Robb Marty       $293.18    $300.00   $300.00
Steve Huneck     $251.33    $251.33   $???.??  (5)
Natalia Lebedynsky $0.00      $0.00     $0.00
Paul DeVito        (6)
Daryl Clark        $0.00      $0.00     $0.00  (7)
Frank Kennedy      $0.00      $0.00     $0.00  (7)

Notes
1) Former Colwood councilor Ernie Robertson contributed $11,997.90 to Lilja Chong
2) Terry Trace had a $500 donation from Anthony Trace and $2,000 from Terrus Estates Ltd
3) Jason Nault's campaign had a surplus and he was reimbursed $1,000 making his contribution $1,787.71
4) Gordie Logan received $900.00 from unions
5) Steve Huneck's financial statement is missing the page of contributors
6) Paul DeVito has been given an extension for filing
7)  Both Daryl Clark and Frank Kennedy withdrew from the eleciton but are still required to fill out an election financing form

Spending in the 2014 Saanich Council Election

Mayor
Candidate        Raised      Spent   Own donation 
Frank Leonard  $62,371.72  $62,306.14      $0.00 (1)
Richard Atwell $52,838.70  $52,838.70 $21,277.39 (2)
TOTAL         $115,210.42 $115,144.84 $21,277.39
Notes
1) Frank Leonard's wife donated $1,145
2) Richard Atwell received $10,000 from a business owned by Allen Vandkerkhove

Richard Atwell contributed 40,27% of the money he spent on his campaign

Council ranked by spending
Candidate         Raised     Spent     Own donation  Union
Fred Haynes      $25,410.00  $29,292.00    $360.00   $1,500.00 (1)
Vicki Sanders    $20,029.96  $23,518.46  $8,913.16             (2)
Leif Wergeland   $18,950.23  $15,992.61  $6,908.23             (3)
Colin Plant      $14,860.12  $14,860.12  $2,434.11   $4,700.00
Judy Brownoff    $12,920.80  $13,720.80    $126.80   $7,550.00
Dean Murdock     $13,068.18  $13,718.18    $138.18   $6,150.00
Paul Gerrard      $7,160.00  $12,454.77  $6,760.00
Susan Brice      $19,682.93  $12,228.63 $11,916.91             (4)
Nichola Wade     $11,837.25  $11,837.25  $8,311.25
Vic Derman        $9,306.00  $10,984.06  $8,200.00
Shawn Newby      $10,540.45  $10,530.07  $8,227.74
Marsha Henderson  $5,125.79   $5.125.79      $0.00             (5)
Rebecca Mersereau $3,835.16   $3,835.16  $2,745.16
TOTALS          $172,726.87 $172,972.11 $65,041.54  $19,900.00
Notes
1) Fred Haynes received $5000 from a business owned by Allen Vandkerkhove.  Fred Haynes own donation was via a company he owns
2) Vicki Sanders husband seems to have contributed $4,500 to her campaign
3) Leif Wergeland had a $5,000 contribution from Nancy Wergeland.  Leif also contributed $$6,903.23 to his campaign but was reimbursed $2,731.02 for a net contribution of $4,177.21
4) Susan Brice contributed $11,916.91 to her campaign but was reimbursed $7,404.30 for a net contribution of $4,462.61
5) Marsha Henderson had a $4,340.79 donation from Marcella Van Rhyn

The spending by the does not really mirror how well they did on election day.  

Candidates ranked based on net personal donation to their campaign
Candidate    Net Personal   Pct of money spent
Vicki Sanders     $8,913.16    37.80%  (1)
Nichola Wade      $8,311.25    70.21%  
Shawn Newby       $8,227.74    78.14%
Vic Derman        $8,200.00    74.65%
Paul Gerrard      $6,760.00    54.28% 
Susan Brice       $4,462.61    36.49%
Leif Wergeland    $4,177.21    26.12%  (2)
Rebecca Mersereau $2,745.16    71.78%
Colin Plant       $2,434.11    16.38%
Fred Haynes         $360.00     1.23%
Dean Murdock        $138.18     1.01%
Judy Brownoff       $126.80     0.92%
Marsha Henderson      $0.00     0.00%
Notes
1) If one counts the $5,000 donated by Dennis Sanders as a personal contribution, Vicki Sanders numbers would be $13,913.16 and 59.16%
2) If one counts the $5,000 donated by Nancy Wergeland as a personal contribution, Leif Wergeland's numbers would be $9,177.21 and 57.39%

The only candidate to win that contributed over 50% of the money to their campaign was Vic Derman
The two newly elected councilors contributed well below the average to their own campaign

Out of interest, Saanich South MLA Lana Popham contributed  the following:

  • Vicki Sanders $100
  • Judy Brownoff $100
  • Colin Plant $500
  • Dean Murdock $200
  • Vic Derman $200

Rob Fleming gave $100 to Dean Murdock


Friday, February 20, 2015

CRD municipalities by population density

The numbers are based on the 2011 and 2006 census
 2011 Census details
Municipality Pop/square km
Victoria      4,109.4
Esquimalt     2,290.1
Sidney        2,183.6
Oak Bay       1,710.3
Saanich       1,057.6
Colwood         911.2
Langford        731.9
View Royal      653.3
Central Saanich 385.6
North Saanich   297.7
Sooke           201.6
Metchosin        67.6
Highlands        55,7

Vancouver Island Population Change 2001-2014

This is a table of the population of each regional district and what percentage of Vancouver Island's population it makes up

Regional District    2014          2011          2006          2001
Capital          372,463 49.3% 367,632 49.0% 355,438 49.3% 340,672 49.6%
Nanaimo          152,518 20.1% 148,770 19.8% 141,214 19.6% 129,838 18.9%
Cowichan Valley   82,407 10.9%  81,845 10.9%  78,361 10.9%  73,925 10.8%
Comox             64,639  8.5%  64,417  8.6% 103,042 14.3%  98,168 14.3%
Strathcona        44,869  5.9%  43,928  5.9% (was included with above)
Alberni Clayoquot 30,876  4.1%  31,581  4.2%  31,076  4.3%  30,741  4.5%
Mount Waddington  11,523  1.5%  11,716  1.6%  11,995  1.7%  13,667  2.0%
TOTAL            759,295       749,529       721,126       687,011
(Until 2008 there was a single Comox-Strathcona Regional District)

Municipalities ordered by population

Municipality          2014    2001
1) Saanich          110,767 108,688
2) Nanaimo           88,869  75,113
3) Victoria          83,200  77,450
Nanaimo RD UI        39,426  37,315(1)
Cowichan Valley UI   36,492  32,479
4) Langford          34,677  20,068
5) Campbell River    32,720  29,173
6) North Cowichan    29,760  27,159
Capital RD UI        25,480  22,949
7) Courtney          24,806  18,886
Comox RD UI          22,465   (2)
8) Oak Bay           17,448  18,011
9) Port Alberni      16,683  17,786
10) Colwood          16,636  14,638
11) Esquimalt        16,207  17,021
12) Central Saanich  15,784  16,028
13) Comox            13,862  11,305
14) Sooke            12,257   9,218
15) Parksville       12,227  10,456
16) Sidney           11,153  11,314
17) North Saanich    10,941  10,645
18) View Royal       10,714   7,728
Alberni-Clayoquot UI 10,452   9,818
Strathcona UI        10,164    (2)
19) Qualicum Beach    8,500   6,954
20) Ladysmith         8,273   6,698
21) Metchosin         4,968   5,110
22) Duncan            4,770   4,740
23) Port Hardy        3,978   4,846
Mount Waddington UI   3,785   4,136
24) Cumberland        3,506   2,617
25) Lantzville        3,496   (1)
26) Lake Cowichan     3,112   2,849
27) Port McNeill      2,518   2,924
28) Highlands         2,221   1,804
29) Tofino            2,119   1,557
30) Ucluelet          1,622   1,580
31) Gold River        1,261   1,367
32) Port Alice          799   1,173
33) Alert bay           443     588
34) Sayward             307     385
35) Tahsis              307     607
36) Zeballos            110     224

NOTES
(1) Lantzville incorporated in 2003
(2) Comox-Strathcona RD split in 2007

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Vancouver Island Federal Election Results

Seats won by the parties in each election
    Right NDP  Libs Green
2011  2    3    0     1
2008  3    2    1     0
2006  2    3    1     0
2004  3    1    2     0
2000  5    0    1     0
1997  5    0    1     0  
1993  5    0    1     0
1988  0    6    0     0 
1984  3    2    0     0 
1980  2    3    0     -
1979  3    2    0     -
1974  2    1    1     -
1972  2    2    0     -
1968  0    1    3     -

TOTAL VOTE FOR EACH PARTY
Elec NDP Grn Lib CPC/Ref PC Ind/Oth
2011 146,878 56,751 30,125 146,783     1,395
2008 114,032 35,665 67,855 142,039     2,245
2006 132,324 24,155 83,575 124,645     3,033
2004 111,322 35,182 89,248 108,848     2,241
2000   40,367 12,291 88,094 140,877 25,512   7,486
1997   65,325   8,670 79,350 130,561 16,319   3,844
1993   63,402   3,463 87,223 127,405 33,601 24,903(1)
1988 138,695  3,012 49,742  26,695 94,076  3,994

Comments on the elections

1988 - All six seats were won by the NDP.  They won the seats not because of vote splitting between the Reform party and the PCs but because NDP support on the Island was up a lot.

1993 - For the first time in decades the NDP won no sests on Vancouver Island, they remain shut out for the next two elections as well.  In 1993 the National Party of Canada did relatively well on Vancouver Island.  Vancouver Island was relatively stable for the 1993, 1997 and 2000 elections

2004 - The vote for the right went from 166,389 to 108,848.  The 57,541 drop in vote is nicely mirrored by a rise of 70,955 in the NDP vote.  Even though the NDP topped the polls, they only won a single seat.
The Liberal vote overall is static overall but this masks that boost that came in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca from Keith Martin.   On the rest of Vancouver Island the Liberals lost around 7,000 votes.

2006 The NDP topped the polls again and gained two seats

2008 - The Liberal vote dropped almost 16,000.  This in election where the Liberals gained significant support in Saanich-gulf Islands, a gain of 8,000.   It means 24,000 Liberal votes were lost in four ridings

2011 - The Greens pulled ahead of the Liberals for the first time in votes and seats, though the Green support is very much more concentrated into one seat.

This is the first time since the 1988 election in which the Liberals won no seats on Vancouver Island

2015 - There will be seven Island seats this time.   Four current MPs are running again though one of them in in a riding that covered much of his old riding.   Out of the 28 total candidates that will be running for one of the four mayor parties, 17 have been nominated.   The Greens and NDP are at six candidates, the Liberals three and Conservatives two.

NOTES
(1) In 1993 20,274 people in Vancouver Island voted for the National Party, 10.8% of the total vote the party achieved in that election.

Friday, February 06, 2015

We have too many local government archives

Legislature in 1940
Saanich, Victoria, Oak BayEsquimalt and View Royal all have municipal archives but all of them are underfunded and understaffed.  Sidney has their arches with the Sidney Museum and Archives, they may also serve as the archives for North Saanich

Colwood I think has started an archives, but information about it is not really available online

The four archives are open for a cumulative 60 to 65 hours a week.  The one museum that houses a municipal archives is open for 25 hours a week

  • Esquimalt Archives are open three hours per weekday
  • Saanich Archives are open four and a half hours per weekday
  • Victoria Archives are open five hours a weekday according the website, but I seem to remember them being closed at lunch
  • Oak Bay Archives are open for two and a half hours on Tuesdays and 2 hours on Thursdays
  • View Royal Archives are only open by appointment
  • The Sidney Museum Archives is open for five hours a day from Monday to Saturday

Cigar factory on Government Street in 1885
None of the archives have much space and some cases not adequate space.  In the City of Victoria the office has suffered water damage not that long ago.

If all the archives were combined it would be possible to have a larger and better facility.  It also be possible to have better staffing.  Better facilities would also allow for better conservation and get more materials online.   Right now the money being spent is not getting anyone value for money.  Many of the archives only have one part time staff person.  As recently as 2010 View Royal left it to volunteers.

The sealing fleet in 1900
We have six other municipalities and the CRD in this region which have no archives at all.   The ongoing records of the municipalities are not being housed for the long term.   This is not a good idea because we lose our history.   I have one good example of this.   For the municipal elections last year I thought I would collate all the local election results in this region back to 1990.   What I discovered along the way is that most local governments have no records of their election results from the 1990s any longer.   This is only 18 to 24 years ago and the information is no longer available.  This is what should be kept by an archive.

Ideally I would like to see 100% of the holdings of the all the local archives put online.   Right now only Saanich has any reasonable amount of stuff online.  Without better full time resources this is not going to happen.

Thursday, February 05, 2015

Two 1951 Airphotos of Tillicum-Gorge



Some old maps relating to the Tillicum-Gorge area

1855 map of the Puget Sound Agricultural Company holdings in the Victoria area



Burnside neighourhood in 1907

Early HBC map of the Gorge

Early map of Craigflower Farm

1861 map with planned defense at the bridge over the Gorge 



Sunday, February 01, 2015

State of the 2015 Federal Election on Vancouver Island

Vancouver Island rises from 6 MPs to 7 MPs with the redistribution but we are still significantly underrepresented.  We now have as many MPs as Newfoundland and Labrador though 260,000 more people.  In fact Vancouver Island has more people than New Brunswick now though they get 10 MPs.

We have four incumbents running again
John Duncan Conservative - MP 1993-2006, 2008 to current - running in Courtnay Alberni
Randall Garrison NDP - MP since 2011 - running in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke
Elizabeth May Green - MP since 2011 - running in Saanich Gulf Islands
Murray Rankin NDP - MP since 2012 - running in Victoria

Retiring are:
Jean Crowder NDP - Nanaimo Cowichan - MP since 2004
James Lunney CPC - Nanaimo Alberni - MP since 2000

Current nominations
Party     Total   Incumbents
        Nominated Nominated
Cons        2        1/2 - one incumbent not running
Greens      5        1/1
Libs        2        0/0
Libertarian 2        0/0
NDP         6        2/3 - one incumbent not running

What it seems like to me is that Vancouver Island is becoming very much an NDP and Green race with pockets of Conservatives.   What is most surprising is how far behind the Liberals are on so many levels.